Long-term interest rate statistics for EU Member States (2024)

What are the Long-tem interest rate statistics for EU Member States?

The statistics for EU Member States relate to interest rates for long-term government bonds denominated in Euro for euro area Member States and in national currencies for Member States that have not adopted the Euro at the time of publication.

Where no harmonised long-term government bond yields are available, proxies derived from private sector bond yields or interest rate indicators are presented, where available.

The harmonised statistics are used for convergence assessment purposes, as stated in Article 121 of the Treaty establishing the European Community (the Treaty). Specific details are set out in Article 4 of the Protocol on the convergence criteria.

Release calendar

Long-term interest rates statistics

Full monthly time series including historical data available in the ECB Data Portal

  • Long-term interest rate data

Background information

More detailed information on national interest rate statistics of the new Member States can be obtained from the website of the relevant national central bank. Detailed information on national HICP statistics of all Member States can be obtained from the website of the European Commission (Eurostat): Euro-indicators.

The long-term interest rate statistics for the Member States refer to the monthly average interest rates for long-term government bonds issued by each country, where applicable, quoted as percentages per annum. The statistical framework for the definition of the long-term interest rates for EU countries outside the euro area follows the same principles as those that were specified and implemented in conjunction with the European Commission as part of the preparations for Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).

All countries joining the euro area are regulary assessed by the ECB and the European Commission to see if their economies comply with the four Maastricht (or convergence) criteria. The fourth of these criteria concerns the level of long-term interest rates. Article 4 of the Protocol on the convergence criteria, as referred to in Article 121 of the Treaty, states that compliance with the fourth convergence criterion "shall mean that, observed over a period of one year before the examination, a Member State has had an average nominal long-term interest rate that does not exceed by more than 2 percentage points that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price stability. Interest rates shall be measured on the basis of long-term government bonds or comparable securities, taking into account differences in national definitions."

In preparation for each enlargement of the EU, the European Central Bank and the European Commission have, together with the central banks of the non-euro area EU Member States, identified representative debt securities that can be used to measure long-term nominal interest rates and alternative long-term interest rate indicators where no suitable government bonds are available. The central banks of the EU have also provided essential input on national capital markets and their structure via several surveys, designed and undertaken jointly by the ECB and the European Commission.

The latest survey, the third edition, is entitled "Bond markets and long-term interest rates in non-euro area Member States of the European Union and in accession countries". Published in November 2004, it provides, for the first time, statistics for Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, in addition to the 12 countries which have joined the EU since 2004. It thus includes 15 national chapters, each of which is divided into five sections. The sections describe the size and activity of the national debt securities markets, interest rates (including bond yields), as well as issues related to securities market regulation.

Since the survey was published, the statistical tables have been updated in the form of three addenda, produced in cooperation with the national central banks.

  • Bond markets and long-term interest rates in non-euro area Member States of the European Union - Addendum incorporating 2006 figures
  • Bond markets and long-term interest rates in non-euro area Member States of the European Union - Addendum incorporating 2005 figures
  • Bond markets and long-term interest rates in non-euro area Member States of the European Union and in acceding countries - Addendum incorporating 2004 figures
  • Bond markets and long-term interest rates in non-euro area Member States of the European Union and in accession countries, thirdedition last update: 24 November 2004
  • Bond markets and long-term interest rates in European Union accession countries
  • Bond markets and long-term interest rates in European Union accession countries

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Long-term interest rate statistics for EU Member States (2024)

FAQs

What is the long-term interest rate for the ECB? ›

In the long-term, the Euro Area Interest Rate is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2025 and 2.25 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models. In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.

What is the interest rate in EU countries? ›

Interest Rate | Europe
CountryLastPrevious
Euro Area4.54.5
Norway4.54.5
Czech Republic5.255.75
United Kingdom5.255.25
17 more rows

What are the interest rates expectations for the EU? ›

Forecasted interest rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations 2023-2025. According to the European Central Bank's survey of professional forecasters, the interest rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations is expected to decrease from 4.5 percent in December 2023 to 4.15 percent in 2024 and 3.29 percent in 2025.

What is the decision on the ECB interest rates? ›

The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rate unchanged for the fifth time in a row at Thursday's meeting. The interest rate decision had been widely expected. A recent Reuters poll had 90% of economists predicting no first interest rate cut before June.

What is the ECB long term growth rate? ›

Overall, annual average real GDP growth is expected to be 0.6% in 2024, and to strengthen to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.

What is the rate of interest in ECB? ›

Fixed rate interest rates set by the ECB 2008-2023

After July 2022, the ECB increased its fixed interest rate almost monthly. As of December 2023, the rate was 4.5 percent, the highest since the global financial crisis in 2007 and 2008. The ECB's interest rate is the rate that it offers to banks for overnight loans.

Do all EU countries have the same interest rate? ›

They don't have the same interest rates. The European Central Bank, like the Federal Reserve, sets overnight rates that banks charge each other to borrow from the reserves they hold at the central bank. That's it.

What is the long-term interest rate? ›

Long-term interest rates refer to government bonds maturing in ten years. Rates are mainly determined by the price charged by the lender, the risk from the borrower and the fall in the capital value.

Why does ECB have three interest rates? ›

As their names suggest, the three key ECB rates are monetary policy instruments used by the ECB to have an impact on the granting of loans and to regulate inflation in the Eurozone. The main role of the ECB is not to lend and banks only turn to the ECB when they don't find any liquidity in the interbank market.

What are the interests of the EU? ›

The aims of the European Union within its borders are: promote peace, its values and the well-being of its citizens. offer freedom, security and justice without internal borders, while also taking appropriate measures at its external borders to regulate asylum and immigration and prevent and combat crime.

What is the interest rate in Germany? ›

Germany Long Term Interest Rate is at 2.35%, compared to 2.33% last month and 2.38% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.09%. The Germany Long Term Interest Rate is the yield received for investing in a German government issued bond with a maturity at or close to 10 years.

Are European interest rates going up? ›

The ECB raised its key rate from below zero to 4 per cent between July 2022 and September 2023 to squash double-digit inflation driven by supply-chain issues during the rebound from the coronavirus pandemic and by an energy crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine.

What is the most important interest rate of the ECB? ›

At present, the most important rate is called the “interest rate on the deposit facility”. This rate is one of the three interest rates the Governing Council sets every six weeks. The other two are the rate on the main refinancing operations and the rate on the marginal lending facility.

What is the ECB rate prediction for 2024? ›

Forecasters expected the rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations (MROs) to remain at 4.5% in the first quarter of 2024 before easing from the second quarter of 2024, reaching 3.75% by the fourth quarter of 2024 and falling further to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.75% in 2026.

What is the outlook for the ECB monetary policy? ›

At a glance. Inflation should decline over the next few years, but more slowly than in 2023. Owing to fading cost pressures and the impact of the ECB's monetary policy, headline inflation should fall from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024 and then to 2.0% in 2025, reaching 1.9% in 2026.

What is the interest rate forecast for ECB in 2025? ›

Their analysts expected a rate of 3.5% in late 2024, gradually declining to 3% in late 2025. Trading Economics anticipated a decrease to 2.75% in 2024 and a further decline to 1.5% in 2025, based on their econometric models.

What are the real rates of ECB? ›

ECB Interest Rates
  • Deposit Facility: 4.00% The rate banks can use for overnight deposits with the Eurosystem.
  • Fixed Rate Tender: 4.50% The rate that provides the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.
  • Marginal Lending: 4.75% The rate that offers overnight credit to banks from the Eurosystem.

What are the target interest rates for ECB? ›

Key ECB interest rates

The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.

What are ECB long term inflation expectations? ›

Inflation should decline over the next few years, but more slowly than in 2023. Owing to fading cost pressures and the impact of the ECB's monetary policy, headline inflation should fall from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024 and then to 2.0% in 2025, reaching 1.9% in 2026.

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